Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Swami's avatar

Great post! Some immediate thoughts….

1. I agree that progress is much broader than measurements. I always find it useful to frame progress around problems and solutions (as you clearly do in the next section!). Progress is about humanity being able to solve more problems and create more improvements to our lives. Some of these are measurable, others aren’t, and we probably disagree on what is more important to measure. Another related problem with problem-solving is that solving them always creates or exposes new problems we didn’t have or notice before. It will always be steps forward and steps back, and we probably won’t agree on the lengths of the various steps. This makes it seem like progress is impossible, but I would suggest it says more about how we need to make progress.

2. I agree with your second point. Progress involves two points in time, with the recognition that it is possible for the later era to be better for humanity than the earlier. It isn’t guaranteed, it isn’t necessarily even likely, but it is possible and (imo) desirable.

3. I also agree with your third point that progress is about us, and our lives. I strongly agree that it is not just about science, technology or economic growth. Progress by definition is a collective affair, not about some of us benefiting at the expense of others. This requires coordination and cooperation. But how to coordinate and cooperate is itself one of nature's trickiest problems.

4. Where I (may?) begin to differ is on point four. I am not sure that progress really is "definable" going forward. It is about discovery, specifically collective discovery in a direction that really isn’t very clear until we get there. I guess we may just be fussing over how to define "define." Sure, in broad strokes we can lay out what types of features a better world would probably have, and that feeds right back into how we should probably try to move forward, and moves at this point which may should probably try to avoid.

Expand full comment
Michael Magoon's avatar

Hello, RB

I just found your column and gave you a sub.

Welcome to the Progress Studies community!

I like your article. It makes some important points.

I too am frustrated by much of the cookie-cutter narrative around the study of progress. I believe that it is mainly due to lazy thinking. I also do not think that the Stagnation debate is particularly useful.

Before I go on, let me point you to my theory of progress:

https://frompovertytoprogress.substack.com/p/a-manifesto-for-the-progress-based

I think that a few of your assumptions push you in the wrong direction. I am not criticizing you personally, because many others in the Progress community make the same mistake.

1) Progress is not about the future. It is about the past and the present, or more accurately a comparison between various years, one of which can be today. This is the critical assumption that steers you wrong. Progress Studies cannot investigate the future. We can only investigate the present and the past.

2) Progress does not have a goal. Progress is an evolutionary process. No one is in control. That is why your question “Progress towards what?” cannot be answered, nor does it need to be.

3) Progress can be defined. In fact, I believe that we cannot understand it unless we have a definition. I gave mine in the linked article.

4) Progress can be measured if we define it tightly, which I do. I give a number of metrics in the linked article above. By far the most useful is per capita GDP, which is closely correlated with all the others. You are correct that “progress is more than measurements”, but a measurement is like inches versus the concept of height. One is a concept, and the other is how we operationalize the concept (i.e. make it specific so we can potentially falsify it.

5) Progress cannot look forward, because it is a process.

6) Progress does not define a better future. Progress is the difference between two time points, and neither can be the future because it is unknown.

7) The reason why the notions that you mention at the end of your article are not because “we’re so used to excluding questions of value.” It is because progress is not about the future.

Anyway, I hope that you take my comments in the intended spirit. Overall, I enjoyed the essay and it is pretty impressive for only your third post!

Feel free to post comments on the linked article in my column.

Good luck!

Expand full comment
13 more comments...

No posts